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Condoguys Vancouver - 5 Signs of a Real Estate 'Bubble'

Condoguys Vancouver is analyzing the current market for indicators that point toward where the market is heading.
Many in the press and around the water cooler like to talk about a real estate 'bubble'
What is often missing from those conversations is the supporting data to back up the 'dooms day mentality' I'm not suggesting that there is no need for concern I just wanted to point out 5 great factors to consider when you are analyzing your greatest investment.


It is very difficult to predict when a stock bubble or real estate bubble will 'pop'. Check out these 5 indicators:

1. Affordability: generally defined as the portion of pre-tax household income needed to service the costs of owning a home. Vancouver has recently been voted the 'least affordable' city in the world. There are factors that influence prices here that don't factor in elsewhere; location (build-able land, climate, waterfront, etc.)
2. Property Prices: Sharp, sudden price increases can signal a problem. National house prices jumped 19 per cent in December from a year earlier and are seen climbing another 5.4 per cent to a record this year, the Canadian Real Estate Association says. Some of that percentage increase should be taken with a grain of salt though, as the comparison is with unusually low year-earlier activity, while big moves in some markets – such as Vancouver – skew the national average. Price increases on a weighted basis – which account for provincial proportions of privately owned housing stock – climbed 3.9 per cent last year.
3. Delinquencies: Canada's low rate of housing delinquencies underscores how different the situation is from the U.S. Arrears – or the portion of mortgage holders who have gone three or more straight months without making a payment – were 0.44 per cent in November, according to Canadian Bankers Association statistics. It may seem a small portion, but is still the highest level in seven years.
4. Borrowing Costs: Canada's key lending rate remains at a record low of 0.25 per cent and the Bank of Canada expects it will stay that way until the summer. The question is not whether rates will rise later this year, but how quickly. Any sudden increase in lending rates could see mortgage carrying costs balloon. 
5. Regulations:Loose regulations have contributed to past bubble formations. In Canada, the heads of the country's six largest banks are calling on the federal government to tighten rules around buying a house. Getting mortgage insurance from CMHC or one of its competitors requires a 5-per-cent down payment, and the maximum amortization period is 35 years. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said this weekend he sees no signs of a housing bubble in Canada – though there are “some signals” that are concerning. “There are certain tools available to the government if we choose to use some or all of them,” he said.
For more information regarding real estate in Vancouver visit www.condoguys.com 
If you have questions about the market or your specific real estate goals we are here connect@condoguys.com